*Written in February, 2018 (let's see how wrong I was)
Next to Artificial Intelligence or Blockchain, the term “Future of Work” is a vague and overused buzz word.
According to McKinsey's Technology, jobs, and the future of work Report:
"The world of work is in a state of flux, which is causing considerable anxiety—and with good reason. Automation, digital platforms, and other innovations are changing the fundamental nature of work. Understanding these shifts can help policy makers, business leaders, and workers move forward."
According to Accenture's Harnessing Revolution Report:
"The very concept of work is being redefined as different generations enter and exit the workforce amidst a rapidly changing technological landscape. The new leadership imperative is clear: Create the future workforce. Now."
According to Deloitte's Report:
"Driven by the acceleration of connectivity and cognitive technology, the nature of work is changing. As AI systems, robotics, and cognitive tools grow in sophistication, almost every job is being reinvented, creating what many call the “augmented workforce.” As this trend gathers speed, organizations must reconsider how they design jobs, organize work, and plan for future growth."
Yet the most comprehensive and revealing research on the Future of Work comes from a report by MIT Technology Review that compiled every study they could find on the impact of technology on job destruction/creation:
While the research provides no one conclusive finding, what it shows is two-fold:
Massive job destruction
More job destruction than job creation
The latter is something hotly debated, and while I personally have yet to hear a compelling/conclusive argument, what seems to be the insight from the noise is that if there are a surplus or equivalent of jobs created, they will look nothing like they do today.
So what should we do?
Dig our heads in the sand? Read a Gary V book and think we'll "crush" our way out of this? I vote somewhere in the middle, somewhere that starts with understanding what this "future" of work really is - the convergence of a new model of labor and intelligent automation.
The "Future of Work" is driven by a New Model of Labor & Intelligent Automation
A New Model of Labor
Is it realistic to believe that by 2027, the majority of the US workforce will be in the form of freelance labor?
On the other end of the token - is it realistic to believe that labor will stay in its current ownership W-2 format?
While both hold merit and skepticism, the underpinning objectivity points to a problem that first reared it's head in the 80's. While productivity shot to record highs, wages stayed constant due to a problem McAfee and Brynjolfsson call the "decoupling of wages and productivity". As we see in the chart below - while the grey line of productivity shot up, the blue line of median family income stayed constant.
Yet this decoupling was only a preview for what the '08 financial crisis had in store. While prior wages were stagnant, post '08 these wages were only created in the form of part-time labor.
Then in 2012 came the birth of talent-management platforms - a labor model made possible by the convergence of the internet & cloud computing. Through these platforms, part-time workers could be matched with part-time gigs in a way that shifted "freelance" work from a cost-cutting decision to a smarter alternative for both sides. And as we see in the chart below, since their inception they've driven a "Gig Economy" that's seen impressive year over year growth.
What these charts leave out is a separate force arguably providing the anchor for this transformation.
According to an Accenture report, as talent and skills gaps grow, as many as 40% of companies experience shortages that drastically impact their ability to adapt and innovate. The solution? Freelancers. According to the same report, 79% of executives agree that the future of work will be based on projects, not roles. What this means is an already openness & willingness to transition their workforce away. What will happen next is the connecting of this willingness with execution through the Talent-Management Platforms fueling the transition to a Gig Economy.
For More:The Future of Work, Part 1: The Convergence of a Gig Economy & Talent-Management Platforms
The Future of Work will see the Gig-Economy as an equal if not better model of labor over traditional full time employment
Intelligent Automation
Is it possible the next billion dollar company could be at the hands of one person? It's a crazy thought - but according to Gigster CEO Roger Dickey not too far away. According to Dickey:
“Soon, one founder will be able to outsource every aspect of their company and obtain sustained success without a single full-time hire”
The reason is automation. According to a McKinsey report, current technologies could be used to automate 45% of individual activities. From bookkeeping, to invoicing, to higher-order cognitive processing, automation spurred by artificial intelligence has the potential to automate anything repeatable & predictable.
But how much of what we call work is repeatable and predictable? According to Sebastian Thrun in his talk What AI Is & What it Isn’t:
“If I look at my job as a CEO I’d say 90% of my work is repetitive. I don’t enjoy it. I spend about 4 hours a day on stupid email. I’m burning to have something that helps me get rid of this."
And that's a CEO. As we move down the chain these numbers are even more alarming. According to the same McKinsey study, only 5% of what we pay people to do requires creativity.
Surprising? Not if we look at our education model and how it still resembles the scientific management based frameworks of the past industrial revolutions.
The Future of Work will see the automation of anything that is repeatable & predictable
Summary
Scary? Yes.
Terrifying? For some....absolutely.
But for those that understand how to be positioned for a post-algorithmic age this world will be full of opportunity.
How can we be the latter? Technically by not being repeatable and predictable - a feat that unfortunately we've wrapped society around since the dawn of the industrial revolution. On the contrary - those best positioned will be those that can merge creativity into everything they do. It's the accountant who rather than following GAAP understands why a rule is what is and can innovate a new rule or process around the objective of that rule. Or the engineer who sees deeper than the equation and creates an out of the box solution.
But how can we get there?
Unfortunately, it's not as easy as pulling an all-nighter the night before a test - rather it's a life-long endeavor that requires a holistic framework that enables divergent thinking - the ability to generate creative solutions by processing multiple solutions. A great place to start is Joseph Aoun, author of Robot-Proof, and his 4 critical cognitive capacities to be "robot-proof" - Critical Thinking, Systems Thinking, Entrepreneurship, and Cultural Agility.
Yet there's a deeper framework we believe drives this transformation - a framework we call the Vitruvian Ideal. Whether an artist or an accountant, a poet or a pediatrician, this framework is the foundation to which you can navigate this new world of work.